Revitalize your understanding of the intersection between politics and advertising with The Political Pulse. Dive into the intricate dynamics of the 2024 election as we dissect its influence on media expenditure in pivotal U.S. markets as political ad spending surges in key battleground states. Enjoy our September 2024 issue.
Presidential Election: New Faces, Same States
As the 2024 Presidential race enters the final stretch post-Labor Day, the campaign landscape has dramatically shifted, yet the battleground states remain largely unchanged. The contest, once marked by familiar faces—Biden-Harris and Trump-TBD—now features new contenders on both sides of the aisle—Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance. However, the key states driving the electoral outcome remain Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
With early voting set to begin as early as mid-September in some states, candidates are ramping up their advertising efforts. These battleground states are seeing an unprecedented surge in ad spending as campaigns vie for every possible vote. Arizona ($131.1M spent to date), Georgia ($298.0M spent to date) and Wisconsin ($141.1M spent to date) are witnessing heavy investments in digital / streaming and broadcast television ads, reflecting their pivotal role in deciding the election’s outcome. Pennsylvania ($380.2M spent to date), Michigan ($232.5M spent to date), Nevada ($81.4M spent to date), and North Carolina ($97.1M spent to date) continue to be hotly contested, with both campaigns focusing on messaging tailored to their diverse electorates.
As we move closer to Election Day, the strategic allocation of ad dollars in these states could be the deciding factor. The landscape may have changed, but the fight for these critical states remains as fierce as ever. The 2024 election promises to be a high-stakes battle right to the finish. AdImpact‘s data below, lists year-to-date Presidential ad spending in each battleground state:
U.S. Senate Ad Battle Intensifies Locally
As the U.S. Senate race intensifies with the final primaries concluding, the battle for control of the chamber is drawing significant attention—and local ad spending. The GOP needs just one additional seat to reclaim the majority, putting Democrats on the defensive in more states than they would prefer. This dynamic has shaped the contours of the Senate race throughout the year, with the focus remaining on key battlegrounds.
Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana are facing fierce challenges, with their seats considered the most vulnerable. Consequently, ad spending has been heavily concentrated in these states as Republicans aim to capitalize on any opportunity to flip them. However, the GOP’s strategy extends beyond these two seats. Close races in Arizona ($108.7M spent to date), Michigan ($98.1M spent to date), Nevada ($125.8M spent to date), Pennsylvania ($291.4M spent to date), and Wisconsin ($131.8M spent to date) are also receiving significant attention. These states, already critical in the Presidential race, are seeing layered spending as Senate campaigns intensify their efforts to sway voters.
As both parties pour resources into these competitive races, the outcome of the Senate contest remains uncertain. The strategic deployment of ad dollars in these battleground states will play a crucial role in determining control of the Senate in 2024. As reported by AdImpact, these Senate battleground states are witnessing a surge in local political ad spending:
Ramping Up: U.S. House Races Ad Spending
Ad spending in U.S. House races typically ramps up later in the election cycle, given the smaller geographic areas and more limited fundraising compared to larger statewide contests. This year is no exception, with spending now rapidly increasing in competitive districts as the election approaches.
According to the 2024 Cook Political Report, California is at the forefront, with eight competitive House races drawing significant ad spending. New York follows closely with seven contested seats. However, it’s no surprise that states already competitive at the Presidential level or hosting tight U.S. Senate races are also seeing intense House contests. Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are experiencing a surge in local political ad activity as campaigns focus on these battlegrounds in the final nine weeks.
With time running out, candidates are pouring resources into these hotly contested districts, hoping to sway undecided voters and secure crucial victories. The late-stage ad blitz reflects the high stakes in these races, where control of the House could hinge on just a few key contests. As Election Day nears, expect the intensity—and spending—to only increase as campaigns make their final push.
The chart below, using AdImpact’s data, lists U.S. House political ad spending in districts with competitive races in Arizona, California, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania:
Ballot Initiatives Drive Local Spending
Last but far from least, down-ballot races and ballot initiatives are driving significant political ad spending in the 2024 election cycle. While reproductive rights remain a dominant issue, attracting substantial attention and funding, voters across the country will also decide on a wide range of other critical issues.
In Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota, marijuana legalization is a hot topic, fueling local ad campaigns on both sides of the debate. Ohio’s redistricting initiative is drawing significant focus, as it could reshape the state’s political landscape for years to come. California’s rent control measures and the school choice debates in Colorado and Kentucky are also sparking intense advertising efforts, reflecting the high stakes involved.
Missouri is seeing a swell in local ads related to sports betting, with proponents and opponents vying for voter support. Meanwhile, wage-related initiatives in Alabama, California, Massachusetts, and Missouri are prompting significant spending as campaigns seek to influence public opinion on these crucial economic issues.
As these issues directly impact voters’ lives, the local ad spending around downballot races and ballot initiatives highlights their importance in the broader political landscape. Expect this spending to intensify in these locations as Election Day approaches and campaigns work to sway undecided voters on these critical matters.
At Locality, we are tracking every race, every ballot initiative, and many more 2024 election cycle moments that will impact ad spending across local TV and streaming. Get in touch if you’d like to discuss local advertising solutions for your campaigns. We’re always happy to chat about Politics.
